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{"id":978,"date":"2021-10-30T17:12:11","date_gmt":"2021-10-30T17:12:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carbonswitch-cms.site\/?p=978"},"modified":"2021-12-13T23:12:44","modified_gmt":"2021-12-13T23:12:44","slug":"cepp-is-dead-but-it-was-never-the-most-important-climate-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carbonswitch-cms.site\/cepp-is-dead-but-it-was-never-the-most-important-climate-policy","title":{"rendered":"CEPP is dead. But it was never the most important climate policy."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Last week I shared the bad news about the Clean Electricity Payment Program (CEPP). After months of debate, Sen. Manchin finally announced he wouldn\u2019t vote for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Immediately the climate community \u2014 myself included \u2014 went into a collective state of mourning. The NY Times, and just about every other media outlet, announced that we had lost our best chance at climate action in a decade and would have to wait another 10 years for our next one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, almost miraculously, everything seemed to change as news broke on Thursday that the latest bill\u2019s text \u2014 supported by Sen. Manchin and Sen. Sinema \u2014 contained roughly $500 billion<\/a> of climate spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In many ways the bill is like a climate activist\u2019s Christmas wishlist: 10 years worth of renewable tax credits, up to $12,500 of electric vehicle rebates, and lots and lots<\/a> of electrification rebates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If passed in its current form, it would be the biggest piece of climate legislation in US history. It would be 10 times larger than the climate investments in Obama\u2019s recovery package. To quote our President, it would be a BFD<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So how did we go from nothing to a historic bill? Well, the truth is that we didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How important was CEPP?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nearly every story about Build Back Better has claimed that CEPP was the most important piece of climate legislation. For example, the Times article<\/a> that broke the bad news about Sen. Manchin\u2019s opposition led with this sentence: \u201cThe most powerful part<\/strong> of President Biden\u2019s climate agenda will likely be dropped from the massive budget bill.\u201d (emphasis mine)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But was CEPP ever the most important part of the bill?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to an analysis<\/a> by Resources for the Future it wasn\u2019t. Contrary to the popular narrative, the tax credits (CEAA) do most of the work to clean up the power sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without either piece, RFF estimates 46% of electricity would be clean by 2030. (This is the baseline scenario without any federal policy change). With the tax credits (CEAA) alone, it\u2019d jump to 69%. And with both policies it\u2019d reach 78%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That means the tax credits (CEAA) would increase the share of clean electricity by 23 percentage points and CEPP would add an additional 9 percentage points. Between 2022 and 2040, the tax credits (CEAA) alone would cut 9.42 billion tons of carbon emissions, while the CEAA and CEPP would cut 11.71 billion tons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, while CEPP was always an important part of the bill, it was never \u201cthe most powerful part<\/em>,\u201d as became the narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was, however, always the most important piece of legislation on the margins<\/em>. According to a senior Senate staffer I spoke to this week there was never any doubt the tax credits would make it into the bill. Those were a given. But the fate of CEPP was unclear up until a few weeks ago when Sen. Manchin killed it. And whether it\u2019s a piece of legislation like this or a swing district in Pennsylvania, the incentives of politics lure our attention towards these marginal votes and policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The job of any interest group \u2014 in this case the environmental community \u2014 is to constantly focus the media and the public\u2019s attention on these margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, none of this is meant as a criticism of the environmental community or the work anyone did to advocate for CEPP. The severity and impacts of climate change will be decided by marginal gains and losses. The difference between two billion tons or two-tenths of a degree in a computer model don\u2019t look like much. But they will manifest as an unfathomable amount of suffering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately that\u2019s why everyone from Sierra Club<\/a> to CEPP\u2019s sponsor Sen. Tina Smith<\/a> framed the bill as \u201cthe most important climate policy.\u201d Communicating nuance at scale is a fool\u2019s errand; it\u2019s also the surest way to kill the energy and momentum of a movement. Far better to paint in broad strokes and avoid the color grey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After all, how else are you going to get anyone to fight for a policy as esoteric and boring as CEPP?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The silver lining<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The good news in all of this is that America can still reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 (the 1.5 degree trajectory). The bad news is that losing CEPP makes it a lot harder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An analysis by Energy Innovation<\/a> suggests that CEPP would have been responsible for a third of Build Back Better\u2019s carbon reductions. The authors of that analysis argue, \u201cWithout it, emissions are likely to be 250 to 700 MMT higher per year in 2030.\u201d To put that in perspective, consider the entire country of Germany emitted 700 million metric tons<\/a> (MMT) of carbon in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, Sen. Manchin killed a policy worth as much as the 6th largest economy in the world\u2019s annual emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But remember all is not lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a report<\/a> by Rhodium Group, America can still reduce emissions by 45% by 2030. Here\u2019s what needs to happen:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Congress passes Build Back Better in more or less its current form.<\/li>
  2. The White House passes a bunch of executive orders.<\/li>
  3. \u201cLeadership states\u201d (blue states with Democratic trifectas) pass a bunch of really ambitious policies (like 100% electric vehicle targets by 2035).<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    That last bullet is worth emphasizing because I think it\u2019s the one that\u2019s easiest to overlook. While most media, tweets, and protests will focus on Biden and Congress, states will play an instrumental role in climate action over the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This differential between the large potential impact and the lack of current attention creates plenty of opportunity for any individual who wants to maximize their impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    With that in mind, here\u2019s my suggested climate action of the week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1. Go to this site<\/a> and find your two state legislators\u2019 email.<\/li>
    2. Write them a nice personalized email telling them you are a constituent and would like to meet with them to understand what bills they plan to introduce to address climate change next legislative session.<\/li>
    3. Meet with them and share personal stories about why you care about this issue and why it\u2019s important your representatives prioritize it.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      If I can help in any way, whether it\u2019s editing your email or coming up with a plan once you\u2019ve got the meeting, let me know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      — <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Alright, that\u2019s all for this week, folks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      I\u2019m currently in the process of working on a few different guides that you can expect to see soon:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      • A guide to climate banking<\/strong> \u2014 Traditional banks like Chase and Wells Fargo use your money to fund fossil fuel projects. So I tested and reviewed 5 banks that use your deposits to fund clean energy and electrification.<\/li>
      • A guide to climate investing<\/strong> \u2014 It turns out you can get 5-8% annual returns funding clean energy, climate justice, and all kinds of cool impact projects and companies. I looked at over 20 different options and plan to share my favorites.<\/li>
      • A review of the best air quality monitors<\/strong> \u2014 I\u2019m planning to go full nerd and test a few air quality monitors to see how bad our natural gas stove is for our health.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        As always, I\u2019d love to hear from you. What do you think about the communications around CEPP and the Build Back Better climate legislation? What questions do you want answered in upcoming guides?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        And of course, Happy Halloween! \ud83c\udf83<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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