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{"id":993,"date":"2021-11-19T17:28:23","date_gmt":"2021-11-19T17:28:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carbonswitch-cms.site\/?p=993"},"modified":"2022-03-09T00:10:04","modified_gmt":"2022-03-09T00:10:04","slug":"the-lowest-hanging-fruit-in-climate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carbonswitch-cms.site\/the-lowest-hanging-fruit-in-climate","title":{"rendered":"LED lighting: The lowest hanging fruit in climate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If you\u2019ve read any of these newsletters or the Carbon Switch guides, you know that I\u2019m a sucker for boring climate solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carbon-free steel, electric trucks that can charge your home, and long term energy storage is cool and all. But what really gets me excited is the boring stuff:\u00a0heat pumps<\/a>,\u00a0hybrid water heaters<\/a>,\u00a0insulation<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 the low-hanging fruit, the solutions we’ve already invented that can deliver billions of tons of carbon reductions right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And there\u2019s no lower hanging fruit than the LED light bulb. The gigaton-scale climate solution most people don\u2019t even consider a climate solution at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week let\u2019s talk about the surprisingly fun history of LEDs, what kind of carbon reductions they can deliver, and how you experience this climate solution first hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haitz’s Law and accidental inventions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Nick Holonyak, Jr. didn\u2019t mean to invent LED lighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1962, as an engineer at GE, he tried to create a visible semiconductor laser. Instead he ended up inventing an expensive, inefficient lamp. But despite this accident and the initial high price point, Holonyak knew his invention had big potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1963 he wrote an article<\/a> for Reader’s Digest<\/em> and argued that LEDs would eventually replace Thomas Edison’s incandescent light bulb. And he was right. It just took a lot longer than he expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For decades LEDs remained stubbornly expensive. The year of the accidental invention, in 1962, GE sold their first LED for $265. Four decades later LEDs were still inefficient and too expensive for commercial use. But by the turn of the millennium that all began to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In February of 2000, a group of lighting engineers gathered at a hotel just outside of San Francisco for the first LED conference. On the first day, a scientist named Roland Haidtz got up on stage and presented a chart. He showed that every decade the efficiency of LEDs had improved by an order of magnitude and their cost had fallen by an order of magnitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time a typical LED light bulb cost $100 compared to incandescent bulbs which cost a few bucks. Haidtz predicted that due to the dramatic fall in prices, those economics would change faster than anyone might expect. By 2020 he predicted manufacturers could make a bulb capable of producing 200 lumens per watt that cost a few dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This prediction became known as Haidtz Law, a cousin of the more famous Moore\u2019s Law in computing or Swanson’s Law in solar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Haidtz\u2019s prediction proved remarkably accurate. By 2010 Sylvania and Philips released their first 60-watt-equivalent LED bulb (the type of light bulb you’d want to put in a lamp). It cost $40 per bulb. A few years later, the same bulbs cost $15. And by 2017, Phillips released their first bulb with the magical 200 lumens per watt efficiency three years ahead of schedule. This weekend I picked up some LEDs for less than $3 per bulb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In many ways LEDs are just another chapter in the story of technological development. If a common theme of literature is the Hero\u2019s Journey, a common theme of technology is the \u201cLearning Curve.\u201d Most inventions start out almost comically expensive and inefficient. And they remain that way for decades. But as R&D investment and production volume grows, people learn how to drive down costs and increase efficiency. Then suddenly one day they are cheaper than anything else on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fortunately there are many climate solutions riding similar learning curves today. Solar, wind, batteries \u2014 all of these things were a joke a little more than a decade ago. Now even climate-denying utilities are deploying them at breakneck speed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s easy to look at a climate solution in the beginning or middle of its learning curve and get pessimistic. \u201cCompanies will never pay $1,000 per ton<\/a> to remove carbon.\u201d \u201cElectric planes are useless if they can only fly 400 miles<\/a>.\u201d But often climate solutions fall down the cost curve like humans fall in love or fall asleep: slowly, and then all at once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From 30% to 100%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Still, the work of deploying technology \u2014 no matter how efficient or cheap it is \u2014 is difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020 was the first year<\/a> that LEDs reached a majority of new lighting sales globally. The latest data<\/a> gathered in the US put the LED penetration rate at about 30%. To avoid a climate disaster we need to speed this adoption up \u2014 fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If LEDs were installed in every lighting fixture around the world tomorrow, there\u2019d be 800 million less<\/a> metric tons of carbon emissions. In the US alone, we could save 431 terrawatt-hours<\/a> (Twh) of electricity and 160 million metric tons of emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now let\u2019s zoom into what this means for you as an individual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A typical homeowner in America can save anywhere from $100-200 per year switching their lights to LEDs. That doesn\u2019t sound like much. But LEDs last about 20 years. If you add up the utility bill savings and the savings from buying incandescent bulbs every 2 years, you\u2019re looking at $3,000-4,000 \u2014 all for a few hundred dollar investment and 2-4 hours of work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what do you say we all replace our light bulbs this weekend and pick some of that low-hanging climate solution fruit?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A while ago, I published three different articles about LEDs that you can find here:<\/p>\n\n\n\n